SC Sopron 0–1 III. Kerületi TUE: Result & Stats

SC Sopron

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

III. Kerületi TUE

5/11/2025

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 28Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SC Sopron33%

×Draw25%

III. Kerületi TUE42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC SopronExpected goals in this matchIII. Kerületi TUE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.54

SC Sopron

1.33

III. Kerületi TUE

1.54

III. Kerületi TUE creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.49

creates per match

1.67

1.42

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

SC Sopron

1.49

III. Kerületi TUE

1.67

allows per match

SC Sopron

1.42

III. Kerületi TUE

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Sopron+0.00on par

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Sopron ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SC Sopron or draw

58%

SC Sopron or III. Kerületi TUE

75%

Draw or III. Kerületi TUE

67%

Winning margin

SC Sopron wins by 2+

14%

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SC Sopron 1+ goals

74%

SC Sopron 2+ goals

38%

SC Sopron 3+ goals

15%

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals

79%

III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals

45%

III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SC Sopron (draw refunded)

44%

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Sopron at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Sopron attack 1.49 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + SC Sopron defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Sopron scores more

33%

level

25%

III. Kerületi TUE scores more

42%

III. Kerületi TUE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff