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SC Sopron vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Southwest 2019

SC Sopron
SC Sopron
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
3/14/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 24Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SC Sopron20%
×Draw23%
III. Kerületi TUE57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Sopron
0.98
III. Kerületi TUE
1.80

III. Kerületi TUE creates 84% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 48 away

creates per match

SC Sopron
1.08
III. Kerületi TUE
2.02

allows per match

SC Sopron
1.58
III. Kerületi TUE
0.88

finishing

SC Sopron+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Sopron ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SC Sopron or draw
43%
SC Sopron or III. Kerületi TUE
77%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
80%

Winning margin

SC Sopron wins by 2+
7%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

SC Sopron 1+ goals
62%
SC Sopron 2+ goals
26%
SC Sopron 3+ goals
8%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
83%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
54%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

SC Sopron (draw refunded)
26%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Sopron at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Sopron attack 1.08 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + SC Sopron defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SC Sopron scores more
20%
level
23%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
57%

III. Kerületi TUE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: SC Sopron 0–0 III. Kerületi TUE

SC Sopron and III. Kerületi TUE drew 0-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Sopron.