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SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
8/2/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 1Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

SC Paderborn 0744%
×Draw23%
Holstein Kiel33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.78
Holstein Kiel
1.50

SC Paderborn 07 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.04
Holstein Kiel
1.59

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.41
Holstein Kiel
1.52

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
67%
SC Paderborn 07 or Holstein Kiel
77%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
56%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
24%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
83%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
53%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
26%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
58%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.78

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
44%
level
23%
Holstein Kiel scores more
33%

SC Paderborn 07 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Holstein Kiel

SC Paderborn 07 beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.