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Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
2/25/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Holstein Kiel39%
×Draw25%
SC Paderborn 0736%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.49
SC Paderborn 07
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
64%
Holstein Kiel or SC Paderborn 07
75%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
61%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
19%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
77%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
76%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
42%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
52%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
39%
level
25%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
36%

Holstein Kiel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07

Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.