SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 59+ matches
SC Paderborn 0747%
FC Ingolstadt 0429%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SC Paderborn 07 creates 33% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 59 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SC Paderborn 07 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 116 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.01 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69
FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
SC Paderborn 07 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
FC Schalke 04
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Ingolstadt 04 on Sunday, 17 March 2019 at 12:30. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
SC Paderborn 07 3 – 1 FC Ingolstadt 04
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 17, 2019.
Goals: K. Kerschbaumer (53'), P. Klement (75'), C. Antwi-Adjej (77', 85').
The match was played at Benteler-Arena (Paderborn).