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SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — DFB Pokal 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
U. Hünemeier 44', 34'
S. Kittel 76'
8/20/2018DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundBenteler-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SC Paderborn 0724%
×Draw22%
FC Ingolstadt 0454%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.21
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.92

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
0.75
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.33

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.50
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.67

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
46%
SC Paderborn 07 or FC Ingolstadt 04
78%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
76%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
10%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
70%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
34%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
12%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
85%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
57%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
31%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.75 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.33 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
24%
level
22%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
54%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
U. HünemeierSC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07 · D
8.6

Match Events

34'
U. Hünemeier↳ C. Antwi-Adjej
44'
U. Hünemeier↳ P. Klement
46'
K. Kerschbaumer← R. Krauße
46'
R. Leipertz← T. Röcher
58'
T. Schwede← B. Tekpetey
62'
Christopher Antwi-Adjei
64'
Agyemang Diawusie
71'
C. Benschop← A. Diawusie
76'
S. Kittel
77'
M. Ritter← B. Zolinski
90+3'
J. Düker← S. Michel

Possession

47%SC

Shots

20SC

Pass accuracy

50%SC

Statistics

SCFC
Overview
47%Possession53%
20Total Shots10
8Corners4
28Fouls26
Shots
20Total Shots10
7On Target2
11Off Target5
2Blocked3
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
295Total Passes333
190Accurate Passes212
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
28Fouls26
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Ingolstadt 04

SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 in DFB Pokal on August 20, 2018.

Goals: U. Hünemeier (34', 44'), S. Kittel (76').

FC Ingolstadt 04 controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 20.

The match was played at Benteler-Arena in Paderborn.