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SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Heidenheim — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Heidenheim
FC Heidenheim
5/14/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

SC Paderborn 0748%
×Draw24%
FC Heidenheim28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.75
FC Heidenheim
1.28

SC Paderborn 07 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 85 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.04
FC Heidenheim
1.16

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.40
FC Heidenheim
1.46

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
FC Heidenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

FC Heidenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
72%
SC Paderborn 07 or FC Heidenheim
76%
Draw or FC Heidenheim
52%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
26%
FC Heidenheim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
83%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
52%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
25%
FC Heidenheim 1+ goals
72%
FC Heidenheim 2+ goals
37%
FC Heidenheim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
63%
FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

FC Heidenheim away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + FC Heidenheim defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Heidenheim attack 1.16 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
48%
level
24%
FC Heidenheim scores more
28%

SC Paderborn 07 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 3–2 FC Heidenheim

SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Heidenheim 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.