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1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
FT
2 – 0
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
1/8/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3La Finca Golf & Spa Resort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

1. FC Heidenheim55%
×Draw21%
SC Paderborn 0724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Heidenheim
2.07
SC Paderborn 07
1.31

1. FC Heidenheim creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

1. FC Heidenheim
2.14
SC Paderborn 07
1.33

allows per match

1. FC Heidenheim
1.29
SC Paderborn 07
2.00

finishing

1. FC Heidenheim+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Heidenheim ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

1. FC Heidenheim or draw
76%
1. FC Heidenheim or SC Paderborn 07
79%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
45%

Winning margin

1. FC Heidenheim wins by 2+
33%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

1. FC Heidenheim 1+ goals
87%
1. FC Heidenheim 2+ goals
61%
1. FC Heidenheim 3+ goals
34%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
73%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
38%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

1. FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)
69%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Heidenheim at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Heidenheim attack 2.14 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.33 + 1. FC Heidenheim defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

1. FC Heidenheim scores more
55%
level
21%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
24%

1. FC Heidenheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "1. FC Heidenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 SC Paderborn 07

1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Paderborn 07 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at La Finca Golf & Spa Resort in Algorfa.