SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayern Munich — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
SC Paderborn 0712%
Bayern Munich72%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bayern Munich creates 159% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SC Paderborn 07 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches
Bayern Munich away — creates 2.87, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.09 + Bayern Munich defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08
Bayern Munich attack 2.87 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 72%?"
Bayern Munich at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 72% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SC Paderborn 07 host Bayern Munich on Saturday, 21 February 2015 at 14:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich beat SC Paderborn 07 6-0 in Bundesliga on February 21, 2015.
Goals: R. Lewandowski (24', 37'), A. Robben (63' pen, 86'), F. Ribéry (72'), M. Weiser (78').
The match was played at Benteler-Arena (Paderborn).