Bayern Munich vs SC Paderborn 07 — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Bayern Munich80%
SC Paderborn 077%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bayern Munich creates 288% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bayern Munich ↓
Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bayern Munich at home — creates 3.84, concedes 0.81 · 37 matches
SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bayern Munich attack 3.84 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.83
SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.64 + Bayern Munich defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 80%?"
Bayern Munich at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 80% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bayern Munich host SC Paderborn 07 on Tuesday, 23 September 2014 at 18:00. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich 4–0 SC Paderborn 07
Bayern Munich beat SC Paderborn 07 4-0 in Bundesliga on September 23, 2014.
Goals: M. Götze (8', 78'), R. Lewandowski (14'), T. Müller (85').
The match was played at Allianz-Arena (München).