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SC Landskron vs Donau Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SC Landskron
SC Landskron
FT
0 – 1
Donau Klagenfurt
Donau Klagenfurt
8/27/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 6Sportplatz SC Landskron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SC Landskron37%
×Draw23%
Donau Klagenfurt40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Landskron
1.67
Donau Klagenfurt
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

creates per match

SC Landskron
1.45
Donau Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

SC Landskron
2.13
Donau Klagenfurt
1.89

finishing

SC Landskron+0.00on par
Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Landskron ↓

Donau Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SC Landskron or draw
60%
SC Landskron or Donau Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or Donau Klagenfurt
63%

Winning margin

SC Landskron wins by 2+
19%
Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SC Landskron 1+ goals
81%
SC Landskron 2+ goals
50%
SC Landskron 3+ goals
23%
Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals
83%
Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals
52%
Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SC Landskron (draw refunded)
48%
Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Landskron at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Donau Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Landskron attack 1.45 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + SC Landskron defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SC Landskron scores more
37%
level
23%
Donau Klagenfurt scores more
40%

Donau Klagenfurt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Donau Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: SC Landskron 0–1 Donau Klagenfurt

Donau Klagenfurt beat SC Landskron 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz SC Landskron in Landskron.