Donau Klagenfurt 1–2 SC Landskron: Result & Stats

Donau Klagenfurt

FT

1 – 2

SC Landskron

4/20/2024

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportplatz SV Donau Klagenfurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Donau Klagenfurt53%

×Draw22%

SC Landskron25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Donau KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchSC Landskron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.33

Donau Klagenfurt

2.02

SC Landskron

1.33

Donau Klagenfurt creates 52% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

1.68

creates per match

1.39

1.27

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Donau Klagenfurt

1.68

SC Landskron

1.39

allows per match

Donau Klagenfurt

1.27

SC Landskron

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

SC Landskron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Klagenfurt ↓

SC Landskron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Donau Klagenfurt or draw

75%

Donau Klagenfurt or SC Landskron

78%

Draw or SC Landskron

47%

Winning margin

Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+

31%

SC Landskron wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals

87%

Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals

60%

Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals

33%

SC Landskron 1+ goals

74%

SC Landskron 2+ goals

38%

SC Landskron 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

68%

SC Landskron (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

SC Landskron away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.68 + SC Landskron defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

SC Landskron attack 1.39 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Donau Klagenfurt scores more

53%

level

22%

SC Landskron scores more

25%

Donau Klagenfurt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Donau Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Donau Klagenfurt 1–2 SC Landskron

SC Landskron beat Donau Klagenfurt 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Donau Klagenfurt in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.

Donau Klagenfurt vs SC Landskron — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Landesliga - Karnten: Donau Klagenfurt 1–2 SC Landskron