Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SC Kriens vs Breitenrain — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

SC Kriens
SC Kriens
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Breitenrain
Breitenrain
R. Hoxha 53'
S. Schwegler 52'
J. Facal 38'
3/8/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SC Kriens53%
×Draw21%
Breitenrain26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Kriens
2.10
Breitenrain
1.42

SC Kriens creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

SC Kriens
2.34
Breitenrain
1.49

allows per match

SC Kriens
1.35
Breitenrain
1.86

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par
Breitenrain+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Breitenrain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw
74%
SC Kriens or Breitenrain
79%
Draw or Breitenrain
47%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+
31%
Breitenrain wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals
88%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
62%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
35%
Breitenrain 1+ goals
76%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
41%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)
67%
Breitenrain (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Breitenrain away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Breitenrain defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

Breitenrain attack 1.49 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SC Kriens scores more
53%
level
21%
Breitenrain scores more
26%

SC Kriens at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
J. Facal
52'
S. Schwegler
53'
R. Hoxha
56'
P. Schupbach← P. Schupbach
56'
J. Campbell← J. Campbell
56'
A. Ruegsegger← A. Ruegsegger
68'
L. Riedmann← L. Riedmann
79'
R. Hoxha← J. Ris
79'
R. Wildhaber← R. Wildhaber
88'
F. Bessa Pinto← F. Bessa Pinto
88'
L. Aversa← L. Aversa
88'
F. Caserta← F. Caserta
88'
N. Siegrist← M. Ruedi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: SC Kriens 3–0 Breitenrain

SC Kriens beat Breitenrain 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Facal (38'), S. Schwegler (52'), R. Hoxha (53').

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.