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Breitenrain vs SC Kriens — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SC Kriens
SC Kriens
2/17/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Breitenrain44%
×Draw23%
SC Kriens33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
1.83
SC Kriens
1.55

Breitenrain creates 18% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 67 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
SC Kriens
1.70

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
SC Kriens
1.76

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

SC Kriens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
67%
Breitenrain or SC Kriens
77%
Draw or SC Kriens
56%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
24%
SC Kriens wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
84%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
54%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
28%
SC Kriens 1+ goals
79%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
46%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
57%
SC Kriens (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + SC Kriens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Breitenrain scores more
44%
level
23%
SC Kriens scores more
33%

Breitenrain at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Breitenrain 2–2 SC Kriens

Breitenrain and SC Kriens drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.