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SC Kriens vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

SC Kriens
SC Kriens
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Basel II
Basel II
5/25/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 34Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SC Kriens50%
×Draw22%
Basel II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Kriens
2.04
Basel II
1.52

SC Kriens creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 106 away

creates per match

SC Kriens
2.34
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

SC Kriens
1.35
Basel II
1.75

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw
71%
SC Kriens or Basel II
78%
Draw or Basel II
50%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+
29%
Basel II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals
87%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
60%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
33%
Basel II 1+ goals
78%
Basel II 2+ goals
45%
Basel II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)
63%
Basel II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 2.34 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Basel II attack 1.70 + SC Kriens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SC Kriens scores more
50%
level
22%
Basel II scores more
29%

SC Kriens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Kriens vs Basel II

SC Kriens beat Basel II 3-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.