Basel II 2–1 SC Kriens: Result & Stats

Basel II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

SC Kriens

3/15/2025

1. Liga Promotion · Round 23Nachwuchs-Campus Basel Platz 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Basel II41%

×Draw22%

SC Kriens37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel IIExpected goals in this matchSC Kriens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.72

Basel II

1.83

SC Kriens

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 67 away

1.90

creates per match

1.70

1.74

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Basel II

1.90

SC Kriens

1.70

allows per match

Basel II

1.74

SC Kriens

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

SC Kriens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Basel II or draw

63%

Basel II or SC Kriens

78%

Draw or SC Kriens

59%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+

22%

SC Kriens wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals

84%

Basel II 2+ goals

54%

Basel II 3+ goals

28%

SC Kriens 1+ goals

82%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

51%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)

53%

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + SC Kriens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Basel II scores more

41%

level

22%

SC Kriens scores more

37%

Basel II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff