SC Genemuiden 3–1 Kampong: Result & Stats

SC Genemuiden

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kampong

12/16/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 17Sportpark De Wetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SC Genemuiden54%

×Draw21%

Kampong26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC GenemuidenExpected goals in this matchKampong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.48

SC Genemuiden

2.21

Kampong

1.48

SC Genemuiden creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.90

creates per match

1.59

1.37

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

SC Genemuiden

1.90

Kampong

1.59

allows per match

SC Genemuiden

1.37

Kampong

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Kampong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Genemuiden ↓

Kampong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SC Genemuiden or draw

74%

SC Genemuiden or Kampong

79%

Draw or Kampong

46%

Winning margin

SC Genemuiden wins by 2+

33%

Kampong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SC Genemuiden 1+ goals

89%

SC Genemuiden 2+ goals

65%

SC Genemuiden 3+ goals

38%

Kampong 1+ goals

77%

Kampong 2+ goals

43%

Kampong 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)

68%

Kampong (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Genemuiden at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Kampong away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Genemuiden attack 1.90 + Kampong defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kampong attack 1.59 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SC Genemuiden scores more

54%

level

21%

Kampong scores more

26%

SC Genemuiden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff