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Kampong vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Kampong
Kampong
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
5/25/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 34Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kampong27%
×Draw25%
SC Genemuiden48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kampong
1.15
SC Genemuiden
1.62

SC Genemuiden creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kampong
1.00
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

Kampong
1.59
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

Kampong+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kampong ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kampong or draw
52%
Kampong or SC Genemuiden
75%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
73%

Winning margin

Kampong wins by 2+
11%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kampong 1+ goals
68%
Kampong 2+ goals
32%
Kampong 3+ goals
11%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
80%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
48%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kampong (draw refunded)
36%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kampong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kampong attack 1.00 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + Kampong defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kampong scores more
27%
level
25%
SC Genemuiden scores more
48%

SC Genemuiden at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kampong vs SC Genemuiden

Kampong beat SC Genemuiden 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Maarschalkerweerd in Utrecht.