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SC Freital vs Germania Halberstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

SC Freital
SC Freital
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
F. Hennig 69', 33'
S. Schulze 55'
P. Grzega 42'
5/17/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SC Freital44%
×Draw25%
Germania Halberstadt32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Freital
1.58
Germania Halberstadt
1.31

SC Freital creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

SC Freital
1.56
Germania Halberstadt
1.44

allows per match

SC Freital
1.18
Germania Halberstadt
1.60

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par
Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Germania Halberstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw
68%
SC Freital or Germania Halberstadt
75%
Draw or Germania Halberstadt
56%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+
22%
Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals
79%
SC Freital 2+ goals
47%
SC Freital 3+ goals
21%
Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
73%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
38%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)
58%
Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Germania Halberstadt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Germania Halberstadt attack 1.44 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC Freital scores more
44%
level
25%
Germania Halberstadt scores more
32%

SC Freital at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
F. Hennig
42'
P. Grzega
55'
S. Schulze
69'
F. Hennig

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: SC Freital 3–1 Germania Halberstadt

SC Freital beat Germania Halberstadt 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 17, 2025.

Goals: F. Hennig (33', 69'), P. Grzega (42'), S. Schulze (55').

The match was played at WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens in Freital.