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Germania Halberstadt vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SC Freital
SC Freital
2/24/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt46%
×Draw21%
SC Freital32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Halberstadt
2.02
SC Freital
1.66

Germania Halberstadt creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt
2.60
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt
1.60
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw
68%
Germania Halberstadt or SC Freital
79%
Draw or SC Freital
54%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
26%
SC Freital wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
87%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
60%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
33%
SC Freital 1+ goals
81%
SC Freital 2+ goals
49%
SC Freital 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
59%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.02

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more
46%
level
21%
SC Freital scores more
32%

Germania Halberstadt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Halberstadt vs SC Freital

Germania Halberstadt and SC Freital drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Friedensstadion in Halberstadt.