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SC Freital vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

SC Freital
SC Freital
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
4/26/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 25WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

SC Freital52%
×Draw23%
Einheit Wernigerode26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Freital
1.89
Einheit Wernigerode
1.28

SC Freital creates 48% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

creates per match

SC Freital
1.56
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

SC Freital
1.18
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw
74%
SC Freital or Einheit Wernigerode
77%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
48%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+
29%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals
85%
SC Freital 2+ goals
56%
SC Freital 3+ goals
29%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
72%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
37%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)
67%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Freital scores more
52%
level
23%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
26%

SC Freital at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Freital vs Einheit Wernigerode

Einheit Wernigerode beat SC Freital 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at WGF-Arena Stadion des Friedens in Freital.