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Einheit Wernigerode vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
SC Freital
SC Freital
10/26/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode39%
×Draw22%
SC Freital39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Wernigerode
1.79
SC Freital
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode
2.12
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode
1.92
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw
61%
Einheit Wernigerode or SC Freital
78%
Draw or SC Freital
61%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
20%
SC Freital wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
83%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
53%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
26%
SC Freital 1+ goals
84%
SC Freital 2+ goals
54%
SC Freital 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
49%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more
39%
level
22%
SC Freital scores more
39%

Einheit Wernigerode at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Einheit Wernigerode vs SC Freital

SC Freital beat Einheit Wernigerode 4-3 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße in Wernigerode.