SC Freiburg 3–3 Borussia Monchengladbach

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC FreiburgExpected goals in this matchBorussia Monchengladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.17

SC Freiburg

1.75

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.17

SC Freiburg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.57

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

SC Freiburg

1.57

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.15

allows per match

SC Freiburg

1.18

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.92

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

SC Freiburg+0.27scores more

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freiburg ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SC Freiburg or draw

74%

SC Freiburg or Borussia Monchengladbach

76%

Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach

49%

Winning margin

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

28%

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

83%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

52%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

25%

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

69%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

33%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

67%

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freiburg at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.18 · 31 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freiburg attack 1.57 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.15 + SC Freiburg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Freiburg scores more

51%

level

24%

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

26%

SC Freiburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Freiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

C. Günter

SC Freiburg · D

8.3

Match Events

1'

Jonas HofmannPenalty awarded

3'

R. BensebaïniPenalty

13'

B. Embolo↳ J. Hofmann

46'

N. Weißhaupt← Jeong Woo-Yeong

46'

L. Höler← E. Demirović

47'

Nicolas HöflerPenalty awarded

49'

V. GrifoPenalty

55'

J. Schmid← N. Weißhaupt

59'

Alassane Pléa

61'

C. Günter↳ M. Eggestein

65'

69'

69'

73'

73'

78'

80'

P. Lienhart↳ C. Günter

85'

K. Schlotterbeck← L. Kübler

85'

P. Herrmann← L. Beyer

88'

Ramy Bensebaini

89'

J. Haberer← R. Sallai

90+3'

L. Stindl↳ P. Herrmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SCBorussia

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots7

8Corners0

12Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots7

6On Target4

9Off Target3

4Blocked0

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

505Total Passes324

427Accurate Passes246

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Match Recap: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach

SC Freiburg and Borussia Monchengladbach drew 3-3 in Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: R. Bensebaïni (3' pen), B. Embolo (13'), V. Grifo (49' pen), C. Günter (61'), P. Lienhart (80'), L. Stindl (90+3').

SC Freiburg controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach