Borussia Monchengladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg

Borussia Monchengladbach

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC Freiburg

3/4/2023

Bundesliga · Round 23Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Borussia Monchengladbach45%

×Draw24%

SC Freiburg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia MonchengladbachExpected goals in this matchSC Freiburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.29

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.62

SC Freiburg

1.29

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

1.53

creates per match

1.12

1.45

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.53

SC Freiburg

1.12

allows per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.45

SC Freiburg

1.71

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.12scores less

SC Freiburg-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Monchengladbach ↓

SC Freiburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Borussia Monchengladbach or draw

69%

Borussia Monchengladbach or SC Freiburg

76%

Draw or SC Freiburg

55%

Winning margin

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

23%

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

80%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

48%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

22%

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

72%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

37%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

60%

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.45 · 32 matches

SC Freiburg away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.53 + SC Freiburg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

SC Freiburg attack 1.12 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

45%

level

24%

SC Freiburg scores more

31%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Thuram

Borussia Monchengladbach · F

7.6

Match Events

15'

Lars Stindl

40'

Nico Elvedi

66'

Marcus ThuramPenalty cancelled

67'

Philipp Lienhart

71'

F. Neuhaus← L. Stindl

78'

M. Röhl← M. Eggestein

78'

84'

85'

85'

87'

87'

87'

90+2'

90'

L. Netz← A. Pléa

90'

N. Petersen← L. Höler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaSC

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots8

1.49Expected Goals (xG)0.34

6Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

1Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

481Total Passes434

404Accurate Passes341

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Freiburg

Borussia Monchengladbach and SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Borussia Monchengladbach controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Mönchengladbach.

Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Freiburg — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Freiburg