SC Covilha 2–0 Pêro Pinheiro: Result & Stats

SC Covilha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pêro Pinheiro

11/5/2023

Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SC Covilha55%

×Draw24%

Pêro Pinheiro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC CovilhaExpected goals in this matchPêro Pinheiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.92

SC Covilha

1.66

Pêro Pinheiro

0.92

SC Covilha creates 80% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

0.43

1.41

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

SC Covilha

1.18

Pêro Pinheiro

0.43

allows per match

SC Covilha

1.41

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw

79%

SC Covilha or Pêro Pinheiro

76%

Draw or Pêro Pinheiro

45%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+

30%

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals

81%

SC Covilha 2+ goals

49%

SC Covilha 3+ goals

23%

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

60%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

23%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)

72%

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.18 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + SC Covilha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SC Covilha scores more

55%

level

24%

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

21%

SC Covilha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff