Pêro Pinheiro 0–4 SC Covilha: Result & Stats

Pêro Pinheiro

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

SC Covilha

8/8/2023

Liga 3 · Round 1Estadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro32%

×Draw26%

SC Covilha43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pêro PinheiroExpected goals in this matchSC Covilha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.48

Pêro Pinheiro

1.23

SC Covilha

1.48

SC Covilha creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.29

creates per match

1.02

1.93

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.29

SC Covilha

1.02

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.93

SC Covilha

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

SC Covilha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

SC Covilha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw

57%

Pêro Pinheiro or SC Covilha

74%

Draw or SC Covilha

68%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

13%

SC Covilha wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

71%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

35%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

13%

SC Covilha 1+ goals

77%

SC Covilha 2+ goals

43%

SC Covilha 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

42%

SC Covilha (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

SC Covilha away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.29 + SC Covilha defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

SC Covilha attack 1.02 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

32%

level

26%

SC Covilha scores more

43%

SC Covilha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff