SC Covilha 0–1 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

SC Covilha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lusitânia Lourosa

2/18/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 2Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SC Covilha36%

×Draw28%

Lusitânia Lourosa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC CovilhaExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

SC Covilha

1.19

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

1.18

creates per match

1.02

1.41

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

SC Covilha

1.18

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

SC Covilha

1.41

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw

63%

SC Covilha or Lusitânia Lourosa

72%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

64%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+

15%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals

70%

SC Covilha 2+ goals

33%

SC Covilha 3+ goals

12%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

70%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

34%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)

49%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.18 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + SC Covilha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SC Covilha scores more

36%

level

28%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

37%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff