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Lusitânia Lourosa vs SC Covilha — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SC Covilha
SC Covilha
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa60%
×Draw21%
SC Covilha19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
2.10
SC Covilha
1.10

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
3.00
SC Covilha
1.40

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80
SC Covilha
1.20

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
SC Covilha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

SC Covilha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
81%
Lusitânia Lourosa or SC Covilha
79%
Draw or SC Covilha
40%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
37%
SC Covilha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
88%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
62%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
35%
SC Covilha 1+ goals
67%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
30%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
76%
SC Covilha (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

SC Covilha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 3.00 + SC Covilha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

SC Covilha attack 1.40 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
60%
level
21%
SC Covilha scores more
19%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 SC Covilha

Lusitânia Lourosa and SC Covilha drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.