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SC Braga B vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Liga 3 2021

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
3/10/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 5Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

SC Braga B44%
×Draw29%
Lusitânia Lourosa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.25
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.93

SC Braga B creates 34% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 46 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.02

allows per match

SC Braga B
0.84
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
72%
SC Braga B or Lusitânia Lourosa
71%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
56%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
20%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
71%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
36%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
13%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
61%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
24%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
61%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 73 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.29 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + SC Braga B defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SC Braga B scores more
44%
level
29%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
28%

SC Braga B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: SC Braga B 2–2 Lusitânia Lourosa

SC Braga B and Lusitânia Lourosa drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão in Fão.