Lusitânia Lourosa 3–2 SC Braga B: Result & Stats

Lusitânia Lourosa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

SC Braga B

5/4/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 12Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa48%

×Draw26%

SC Braga B26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitânia LourosaExpected goals in this matchSC Braga B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.52

SC Braga B

1.05

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

1.78

creates per match

1.21

0.89

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.78

SC Braga B

1.21

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

0.89

SC Braga B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

SC Braga B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw

74%

Lusitânia Lourosa or SC Braga B

74%

Draw or SC Braga B

52%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

24%

SC Braga B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

78%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

45%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

20%

SC Braga B 1+ goals

65%

SC Braga B 2+ goals

28%

SC Braga B 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

65%

SC Braga B (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + SC Braga B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

SC Braga B attack 1.21 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

48%

level

26%

SC Braga B scores more

26%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff