SC Braga B 1–1 Leixoes: Result & Stats

SC Braga B

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leixoes

3/15/2017

Segunda Liga · Round 32Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SC Braga B41%

×Draw27%

Leixoes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Braga BExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

SC Braga B

1.31

Leixoes

1.13

SC Braga B creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 132 away

1.32

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

SC Braga B

1.32

Leixoes

1.02

allows per match

SC Braga B

1.24

Leixoes

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw

68%

SC Braga B or Leixoes

73%

Draw or Leixoes

59%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+

18%

Leixoes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals

73%

SC Braga B 2+ goals

38%

SC Braga B 3+ goals

14%

Leixoes 1+ goals

68%

Leixoes 2+ goals

31%

Leixoes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)

56%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.30 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.32 + Leixoes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leixoes attack 1.02 + SC Braga B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SC Braga B scores more

41%

level

27%

Leixoes scores more

32%

SC Braga B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SC Braga B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff