Leixoes 2–1 SC Braga B: Result & Stats

Leixoes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SC Braga B

Roniel 89', 74'

Simão 50'

12/2/2018

Segunda Liga · Round 10Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Leixoes39%

×Draw28%

SC Braga B33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchSC Braga B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Leixoes

1.22

SC Braga B

1.11

Leixoes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 26 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

1.19

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Leixoes

1.17

SC Braga B

1.04

allows per match

Leixoes

1.19

SC Braga B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

SC Braga B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

67%

Leixoes or SC Braga B

72%

Draw or SC Braga B

61%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

17%

SC Braga B wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

70%

Leixoes 2+ goals

34%

Leixoes 3+ goals

12%

SC Braga B 1+ goals

67%

SC Braga B 2+ goals

30%

SC Braga B 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

54%

SC Braga B (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + SC Braga B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

SC Braga B attack 1.04 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leixoes scores more

39%

level

28%

SC Braga B scores more

33%

Leixoes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Simão

56'

Roniel← L. Ofori

66'

Evandro Brandão← André Ceitil

74'

Roniel

77'

Tiago Dias← André Ribeiro

81'

Elias← Henry

89'

Roniel

90'

Luis Silva

90'

A. Oudrhiri← Erivaldo

Leixoes

SC

94

Pereira

43

Wilson

4

Cunha

70

⚽

42

15

55

50

41

90

▼

Ribeiro

51

▼

12

57

33

6

▼

2

4

27

80

▼

Ofori

20

Martins

7

Kukula

15

▼

Erivaldo

Manager: Filipe Gouveia

56'▲Roniel←▼L. Ofori

66'▲Evandro Brandão←▼André Ceitil

90'▲A. Oudrhiri←▼Erivaldo

Leixoes substitutes

77Roniel47Brandão5Oudrhiri10Breitner18Correia21Moreira22Ribeiro

Manager: Wenderson Said

77'▲Tiago Dias←▼André Ribeiro

81'▲Elias←▼Henry

SC Braga B substitutes

79Dias52Elias16Murić66Caetano75Ferreira82Casimiro92Carmo