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SC Braga B vs Estoril — Segunda Liga 2018

SC Braga B
SC Braga B
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Estoril
Estoril
R. Dadaşov 57'
8/18/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 2Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Braga B35%
×Draw27%
Estoril38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga B
1.23
Estoril
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 46 away

creates per match

SC Braga B
1.38
Estoril
1.28

allows per match

SC Braga B
1.29
Estoril
1.07

finishing

SC Braga B+0.00on par
Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga B ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Braga B or draw
62%
SC Braga B or Estoril
73%
Draw or Estoril
65%

Winning margin

SC Braga B wins by 2+
15%
Estoril wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SC Braga B 1+ goals
71%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
35%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
13%
Estoril 1+ goals
72%
Estoril 2+ goals
37%
Estoril 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Braga B (draw refunded)
48%
Estoril (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga B at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Estoril away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga B attack 1.38 + Estoril defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Estoril attack 1.28 + SC Braga B defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SC Braga B scores more
35%
level
27%
Estoril scores more
38%

Estoril at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
R. Dadaşov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Braga B vs Estoril

Estoril beat SC Braga B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on August 18, 2018.

Goals: R. Dadaşov (57').

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio (Braga).