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Estoril vs SC Braga B — Segunda Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Braga B
SC Braga B
Filipe Soares 65'
Gonçalo 12'
Denisson 49'
1/29/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 19Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Estoril50%
×Draw26%
SC Braga B25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.52
SC Braga B
0.99

Estoril creates 54% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 21 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.74
SC Braga B
1.00

allows per match

Estoril
0.98
SC Braga B
1.29

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
SC Braga B+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

SC Braga B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
75%
Estoril or SC Braga B
74%
Draw or SC Braga B
50%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
25%
SC Braga B wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
78%
Estoril 2+ goals
45%
Estoril 3+ goals
20%
SC Braga B 1+ goals
63%
SC Braga B 2+ goals
26%
SC Braga B 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
67%
SC Braga B (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

SC Braga B away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.74 + SC Braga B defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

SC Braga B attack 1.00 + Estoril defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Estoril scores more
50%
level
26%
SC Braga B scores more
25%

Estoril at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Gonçalo
49'
Denisson
65'
Filipe Soares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estoril 2 – 1 SC Braga B

Estoril beat SC Braga B 2-1 in Segunda Liga on January 29, 2019.

Goals: Gonçalo (12'), Denisson (49'), Filipe Soares (65').

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril).