Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SC Bengaluru vs Dempo — I-League 2019

SC Bengaluru
SC Bengaluru
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dempo
Dempo
12/7/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 4Bangalore Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Bengaluru43%
×Draw27%
Dempo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Bengaluru
1.39
Dempo
1.14

SC Bengaluru creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

SC Bengaluru
1.45
Dempo
1.00

allows per match

SC Bengaluru
1.27
Dempo
1.33

finishing

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par
Dempo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bengaluru ↓

Dempo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Bengaluru or draw
69%
SC Bengaluru or Dempo
73%
Draw or Dempo
57%

Winning margin

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+
20%
Dempo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals
75%
SC Bengaluru 2+ goals
40%
SC Bengaluru 3+ goals
16%
Dempo 1+ goals
68%
Dempo 2+ goals
32%
Dempo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)
58%
Dempo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bengaluru at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Dempo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bengaluru attack 1.45 + Dempo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dempo attack 1.00 + SC Bengaluru defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Bengaluru scores more
43%
level
27%
Dempo scores more
31%

SC Bengaluru at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: SC Bengaluru 3–1 Dempo

SC Bengaluru beat Dempo 3-1 in I-League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Bangalore Football Stadium in Bangalore.