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Dempo vs SC Bengaluru — I-League 2019

Dempo
Dempo
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
SC Bengaluru
SC Bengaluru
3/8/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 18Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Goa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dempo62%
×Draw20%
SC Bengaluru18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dempo
2.22
SC Bengaluru
1.11

Dempo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dempo
1.89
SC Bengaluru
0.73

allows per match

Dempo
1.50
SC Bengaluru
2.55

finishing

Dempo+0.00on par
SC Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dempo ↓

SC Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dempo or draw
82%
Dempo or SC Bengaluru
80%
Draw or SC Bengaluru
38%

Winning margin

Dempo wins by 2+
39%
SC Bengaluru wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dempo 1+ goals
89%
Dempo 2+ goals
65%
Dempo 3+ goals
38%
SC Bengaluru 1+ goals
67%
SC Bengaluru 2+ goals
30%
SC Bengaluru 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dempo (draw refunded)
77%
SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dempo at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

SC Bengaluru away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dempo attack 1.89 + SC Bengaluru defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.22

SC Bengaluru attack 0.73 + Dempo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dempo scores more
62%
level
20%
SC Bengaluru scores more
18%

Dempo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dempo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Dempo 8–1 SC Bengaluru

Dempo beat SC Bengaluru 8-1 in I-League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Goa in Margao.