SC Bastia 2–0 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

SC Bastia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

5/14/2017

Ligue 1 · Round 37Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SC Bastia58%

×Draw24%

Lorient18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BastiaExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.83

SC Bastia

1.69

Lorient

0.83

SC Bastia creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 87 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

0.60

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

SC Bastia

1.40

Lorient

1.06

allows per match

SC Bastia

0.60

Lorient

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Bastia+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Bastia ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

SC Bastia or draw

82%

SC Bastia or Lorient

76%

Draw or Lorient

42%

Winning margin

SC Bastia wins by 2+

32%

Lorient wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SC Bastia 1+ goals

82%

SC Bastia 2+ goals

50%

SC Bastia 3+ goals

24%

Lorient 1+ goals

56%

Lorient 2+ goals

20%

Lorient 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SC Bastia (draw refunded)

76%

Lorient (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Bastia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Bastia attack 1.40 + Lorient defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lorient attack 1.06 + SC Bastia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SC Bastia scores more

58%

level

24%

Lorient scores more

18%

SC Bastia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SC Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff