Bastia 0–0 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

11/23/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bastia35%

×Draw29%

Lorient36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Bastia

1.13

Lorient

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

1.37

0.93

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Bastia

1.18

Lorient

1.37

allows per match

Bastia

0.93

Lorient

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

64%

Bastia or Lorient

71%

Draw or Lorient

65%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Lorient wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

68%

Bastia 2+ goals

31%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Lorient 1+ goals

68%

Lorient 2+ goals

32%

Lorient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

49%

Lorient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Lorient defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lorient attack 1.37 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bastia scores more

35%

level

29%

Lorient scores more

36%

Lorient at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Placide

Bastia · G

8.6

Match Events

32'

32'

37'

53'

57'

J. Mvuka← P. Katseris

60'

F. Bohnert← L. Tramoni

60'

C. Inao Oulaï← J. Maggiotti

60'

A. Boutrah← L. Cissé

61'

Christ Inao Oulaï

67'

S. Mazikou← D. Guidi

77'

F. Tomi← L. Etoga

81'

Julien Laporte

85'

Igor Silva

86'

T. Le Bris← J. Ponceau

89'

Darlin Yongwa

90+5'

Anthony Roncaglia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaLorient

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots16

6Corners5

10Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots16

1On Target7

2Off Target5

4Blocked4

2Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

337Total Passes546

245Accurate Passes464

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

0Offsides5