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Sayana Haskovo vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
1 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
3/15/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo61%
×Draw22%
Rozova dolina17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
1.91
Rozova dolina
0.91

Sayana Haskovo creates 110% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
83%
Sayana Haskovo or Rozova dolina
78%
Draw or Rozova dolina
39%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
36%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
85%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
57%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
30%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
60%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
23%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
78%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.91

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
61%
level
22%
Rozova dolina scores more
17%

Sayana Haskovo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sayana Haskovo 1–0 Rozova dolina

Sayana Haskovo beat Rozova dolina 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.