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Rozova dolina vs Sayana Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
3/7/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Rozova dolina50%
×Draw24%
Sayana Haskovo27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
1.74
Sayana Haskovo
1.21

Rozova dolina creates 44% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 92 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Sayana Haskovo
1.45

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Sayana Haskovo
1.37

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Sayana Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
73%
Rozova dolina or Sayana Haskovo
76%
Draw or Sayana Haskovo
50%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
27%
Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
82%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
52%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
25%
Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
70%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
34%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
65%
Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
50%
level
24%
Sayana Haskovo scores more
27%

Rozova dolina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Rozova dolina 3–1 Sayana Haskovo

Rozova dolina beat Sayana Haskovo 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 7, 2026.