Sayana Haskovo 0–0 Levski Krumovgrad

Sayana Haskovo

FT

0 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

11/28/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 17Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sayana Haskovo29%

×Draw24%

Levski Krumovgrad47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sayana HaskovoExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.65

Sayana Haskovo

1.25

Levski Krumovgrad

1.65

Levski Krumovgrad creates 32% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

2.59

0.70

allows per match

0.41

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo

2.08

Levski Krumovgrad

2.59

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo

0.70

Levski Krumovgrad

0.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw

53%

Sayana Haskovo or Levski Krumovgrad

76%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

71%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

12%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

71%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

36%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

13%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

81%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

49%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

38%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more

29%

level

24%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

47%

Levski Krumovgrad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff