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Levski Krumovgrad vs Sayana Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
3 – 1
Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
5/28/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 34Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad73%
×Draw16%
Sayana Haskovo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.69
Sayana Haskovo
0.99

Levski Krumovgrad creates 172% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Sayana Haskovo
1.45

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Sayana Haskovo
1.37

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Sayana Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
88%
Levski Krumovgrad or Sayana Haskovo
84%
Draw or Sayana Haskovo
27%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
51%
Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
93%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
74%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
49%
Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
63%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
26%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
86%
Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.69

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
73%
level
16%
Sayana Haskovo scores more
12%

Levski Krumovgrad at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Sayana Haskovo

Levski Krumovgrad beat Sayana Haskovo 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.