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Sayana Haskovo vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
9/21/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sayana Haskovo64%
×Draw20%
Botev Plovdiv III16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
2.12
Botev Plovdiv III
0.93

Sayana Haskovo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
84%
Sayana Haskovo or Botev Plovdiv III
80%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
36%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
41%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
88%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
62%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
35%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
61%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
24%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
81%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.12

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
64%
level
20%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
16%

Sayana Haskovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sayana Haskovo vs Botev Plovdiv III

Sayana Haskovo beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.