Botev Plovdiv III 3–1 Sayana Haskovo

Botev Plovdiv III

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sayana Haskovo

4/1/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 27Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III34%

×Draw26%

Sayana Haskovo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIIExpected goals in this matchSayana Haskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.41

Botev Plovdiv III

1.29

Sayana Haskovo

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

1.21

creates per match

1.45

1.37

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.21

Sayana Haskovo

1.45

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.37

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Sayana Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw

60%

Botev Plovdiv III or Sayana Haskovo

74%

Draw or Sayana Haskovo

66%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+

15%

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals

72%

Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals

37%

Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals

14%

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

76%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

41%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)

46%

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more

34%

level

26%

Sayana Haskovo scores more

40%

Sayana Haskovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff