Sayana Haskovo 3–0 Borislav 2009: Result & Stats

Sayana Haskovo

FT

3 – 0

Borislav 2009

8/15/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 2Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sayana Haskovo71%

×Draw18%

Borislav 200911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sayana HaskovoExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.80

Sayana Haskovo

2.30

Borislav 2009

0.80

Sayana Haskovo creates 187% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 79 away

2.08

creates per match

0.91

0.70

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo

2.08

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo

0.70

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw

89%

Sayana Haskovo or Borislav 2009

82%

Draw or Borislav 2009

29%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

47%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

90%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

67%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

40%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

55%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

19%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

86%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.30

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more

71%

level

18%

Borislav 2009 scores more

11%

Sayana Haskovo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff