Borislav 2009 0–3 Sayana Haskovo: Result & Stats

Borislav 2009

FT

0 – 3

Sayana Haskovo

3/11/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200940%

×Draw25%

Sayana Haskovo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borislav 2009Expected goals in this matchSayana Haskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.37

Borislav 2009

1.48

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 92 away

1.59

creates per match

1.45

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Borislav 2009

1.59

Sayana Haskovo

1.45

allows per match

Borislav 2009

1.29

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Sayana Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw

65%

Borislav 2009 or Sayana Haskovo

75%

Draw or Sayana Haskovo

60%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

19%

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

77%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

43%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

19%

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

75%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

40%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

53%

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more

40%

level

25%

Sayana Haskovo scores more

35%

Borislav 2009 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff