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Saxan vs Făleşti — Super Liga 2026

Saxan
Saxan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Făleşti
Făleşti
5/10/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 10Stadionul Satului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Saxan81%
×Draw11%
Făleşti8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saxan
3.39
Făleşti
1.01

Saxan creates 236% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Saxan
3.07
Făleşti
1.29

allows per match

Saxan
0.73
Făleşti
3.71

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par
Făleşti+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Făleşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Saxan or draw
92%
Saxan or Făleşti
89%
Draw or Făleşti
19%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+
63%
Făleşti wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals
96%
Saxan 2+ goals
84%
Saxan 3+ goals
64%
Făleşti 1+ goals
64%
Făleşti 2+ goals
27%
Făleşti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)
91%
Făleşti (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Făleşti away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 3.07 + Făleşti defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 3.39

Făleşti attack 1.29 + Saxan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Saxan scores more
81%
level
11%
Făleşti scores more
8%

Saxan at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Saxan 2–0 Făleşti

Saxan beat Făleşti 2-0 in Super Liga on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Satului in Cricova.