Făleşti 0–3 Saxan: Result & Stats | Super Liga

Făleşti

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saxan

4/11/2025

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 5Stadionul Făleşti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Făleşti8%

×Draw13%

Saxan79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FăleştiExpected goals in this matchSaxan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

2.82

Făleşti

0.79

Saxan

2.82

Saxan creates 257% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

0.50

creates per match

1.64

4.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Făleşti

0.50

Saxan

1.64

allows per match

Făleşti

4.00

Saxan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Făleşti+0.00on par

Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Făleşti ↓

Saxan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Făleşti or draw

21%

Făleşti or Saxan

87%

Draw or Saxan

92%

Winning margin

Făleşti wins by 2+

2%

Saxan wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Făleşti 1+ goals

55%

Făleşti 2+ goals

19%

Făleşti 3+ goals

5%

Saxan 1+ goals

94%

Saxan 2+ goals

77%

Saxan 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Făleşti (draw refunded)

9%

Saxan (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Făleşti at home — creates 0.50, concedes 4.00 · 10 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Făleşti attack 0.50 + Saxan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Saxan attack 1.64 + Făleşti defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Făleşti scores more

8%

level

13%

Saxan scores more

79%

Saxan at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff