Savoia 1–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937: Result & Stats

Savoia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

10/6/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Savoia43%

×Draw28%

Guidonia Montecelio 193729%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SavoiaExpected goals in this matchGuidonia Montecelio 1937

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Savoia

1.29

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

1.00

Savoia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

1.35

0.65

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Savoia

1.76

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

1.35

allows per match

Savoia

0.65

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Savoia+0.00on par

Guidonia Montecelio 1937+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Savoia ↓

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Savoia or draw

71%

Savoia or Guidonia Montecelio 1937

72%

Draw or Guidonia Montecelio 1937

57%

Winning margin

Savoia wins by 2+

20%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Savoia 1+ goals

72%

Savoia 2+ goals

37%

Savoia 3+ goals

14%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1+ goals

63%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2+ goals

26%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Savoia (draw refunded)

60%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Savoia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Savoia attack 1.76 + Guidonia Montecelio 1937 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 attack 1.35 + Savoia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Savoia scores more

43%

level

28%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 scores more

29%

Savoia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Savoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Savoia 1–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Savoia beat Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa in Cardito.

Savoia vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Serie D - Girone G: Savoia 1–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937