Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Savoia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Savoia
Savoia
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guidonia Montecelio 193760%
×Draw24%
Savoia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1.71
Savoia
0.77

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2.12
Savoia
0.88

allows per match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937
0.65
Savoia
1.29

finishing

Guidonia Montecelio 1937+0.00on par
Savoia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ↓

Savoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or draw
83%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or Savoia
76%
Draw or Savoia
40%

Winning margin

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 wins by 2+
34%
Savoia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1+ goals
82%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2+ goals
51%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3+ goals
24%
Savoia 1+ goals
54%
Savoia 2+ goals
18%
Savoia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (draw refunded)
78%
Savoia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Savoia away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 attack 2.12 + Savoia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Savoia attack 0.88 + Guidonia Montecelio 1937 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 scores more
60%
level
24%
Savoia scores more
17%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guidonia Montecelio 1937 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 6–1 Savoia

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 beat Savoia 6-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Guidonia Montecelio.